*The painter ChatGPT “A dramatic poker game scene in a dimly lit casino where a player has just lost everything after going all-in in Texas Hold’em.”
When the Pair Is Matched (or Not Matched)
In my last post I wrote about preflop strategy, so I will continue by thinking about flop strategy. On the flop, three community cards are added, exponentially increasing the number of possible combinations compared to pre-flop. Therefore, from the flop onwards, there is no established strategy that can be called standard. However, at this point we have five cards, two hand cards and three community cards, so the combination of these cards can give us some guidance on how to judge the hand. Let us summarize this briefly. For simplicity’s sake, we will not consider the possibility of straights and flushes in this section.
1. Two Pairs or Better
It depends on your opponent’s hand, but in this case, there is a high probability that you will be the winner, so you should think about your betting strategy assuming you will win. On the other hand, it is rare to have a hand of two pair or better at the time of the flop. Of course, there is a possibility that you will lose unless you have a hand that is guaranteed to win, known as the nuts, but unless you raise your bet with a hand that has a high chance of winning, your expected value will not increase, so if you lose, you should assume that it was an accident and be aggressive.
2. One Pair (Top)
For example, if your hand is A8o and the community cards are A,9,5, you are guaranteed a pair of Aces. In this case too, it is generally a good idea to take an aggressive approach. However, it is important to note that if the top hit one pair is low in rank, such as when the community cards are 8, 5, and 2, there is a reasonable chance that the top hit one pair will be overturned.
3. One Pair (Middle)
For example, if your hand is A8o and the community cards are Q, 8, and 5, you are guaranteed a pair of 8s. In this case, there is no need to be discouraged, but if there is a player with Q, you will lose, so you will need to consider your strategy while observing the actions of the other players. Even in this case, the win rate itself is higher than average, so it may be better not to fold easily.
4. One Pair (Bottom)
For example, if your hand is A5o and the community cards are Q, 8, and 5, you are guaranteed a pair of 5s. In this case, be aware that a pair of 5s alone does not give you a high chance of winning. For example, if there are four players remaining, the winning percentage will be around 25%, but since the players remaining on the flop are more likely to have stronger hands than a random hand, you may want to estimate this lower than the average winning percentage. You should either hold out and hope for a hand of two pair or better, or fold if you can’t imagine a reversal scenario.
5. One Pair (Pocket Pair)
If your hand is AA and the community cards are Q, 8, or 5, you still have a pair. If the rank of your pocket pair is higher than the rank of common cards, your chances of winning are high, so you can be more aggressive. The odds of winning can be thought of as pocket pair (1st) > one pair (top) > pocket pair (2nd) > one pair (middle) > pocket pair (3rd) > one pair (bottom) > pocket pair (4th).
6. High Card
If you have no hand at the time of the flop (high cards), you have a higher than average chance of losing, even if the cards are high-ranking, so I think it’s okay to basically consider withdrawing. For example, if your hand is AQo but the community cards are K, 8, and 3, you need to be careful because even if your hand looks strong, your chances of winning are lower than average. However, if you can aim for a flush or straight, you can hold out, and if the flop comes after a 3-bet with only 2 or 3 players remaining, it is not uncommon for your opponent to also have high cards, so in this case it may be okay to bet aggressively.
Straight Draws and Flush Draws
In poker, in addition to hands such as one pair, which are cards of the same rank, there are also straights and flushes. The probability of this happening is not high, but if it does happen, there is a high probability of winning, so it would be okay to be aggressive in a situation where there is a possibility of these conditions occurring. First, let us classify the situations in which you can aim for a straight on the flop.
1. A Straight Is Formed
If you can make a straight with your hand and the community cards, you have a high chance of winning, so you should bet aggressively. One thing to note is that if the hand is 89o and the community cards are Q, J, and T, the AKo player also has a straight, and in this case he or she will lose, so you should take the rank of the straight into consideration when making your decision.
2. Open End
A situation where there are four consecutive cards of the same rank in your hand and in the community cards is called an open end. There is a 2/13 chance of making a straight. If the flop is open-ended, there is roughly a 30% (≒2/13 + 2/13) chance of making a straight. Although the probability of hitting a straight hand may seem low, you should evaluate your hand in conjunction with the probability of hitting a higher ranking pair.
3. Gut-shot
A gutshot is a situation where four non-consecutive cards from your hand and the community cards are in a straight, but you need one more card to make a straight. If you have a gut shot at the flop stage, there is roughly a 15% (≒1/13 + 1/13) chance of making a straight. As with open-ended, going for a straight may seem like a low probability, but you can evaluate your hand in conjunction with the probability of making a higher ranking pair.
4. Backdoor Straight Draw
A backdoor straight draw is a situation in which, based on the situation of your hand and the common cards, if two cards of a certain rank were to come up on the turn and river, it would form a straight. Although there is a possibility of a straight, in reality the probability of a straight from this position is very low (about 1%), so it is not a reason to bet aggressively. However, there may be cases where the number of these combinations is 5 to 10 or more, so if turn results in an open-ended or gut-shot hand, you should think again about whether you can aim for a straight.
In a similar way, we classify situations where you can aim for a flush on the flop.
1. A Flush Is Formed
If you have a flush with your hand and the community cards, you have a high chance of winning, so you should be aggressive. However, if you have three suits among the community cards, the other players will be very wary, so you can choose to just check and see what happens. Also, if your rank is low, the same suit card may come up on the river or turn, causing other players to get a flush and lose, so it may be better to raise your bet and defend.
2. Flush Draw
A flush draw is when you have four cards in your hand and community cards that all have the same suit. The probability of getting a flush on the turn and river is roughly 35% (≈ 9/47+38/47*9/46), so it is considered a good position to bet aggressively. Even if you have 1 card in your hand and 3 common cards, it’s okay to be aggressive if the cards in your hand are high-ranking. Naturally, your chances of winning are higher if you have two cards in your hand.
3. Backdoor Flush Draw
A backdoor flush draw is when you have three cards in your hand and three community cards that all have the same suit. The probability of getting a flush on the turn and river is roughly 4% (≈ 10/47 x 9/46), so this is probably not a reason to bet aggressively. If the same suit card comes up in turn, you should think about whether you can aim for a flush again. Naturally, your chances of winning are higher if you have two cards in your hand.
This applies to both straights and flushes: if you are in a situation where there is a possibility of getting a straight or flush, it means that other players are also in a situation where there is a possibility of getting a straight or flush, so it is a good idea to play while paying attention to the rank of the cards in your hand.
Continuation Bet (CB) and Bluffing
Betting action on the flop starts with the small blind (SB), but generally everyone checks until the last player to raise preflop (called the aggressor). Betting before the aggressor acts is called a donk bet, and since it reveals the strength of your hand, it is something that beginners are advised to avoid. Experienced players may see this as a form of bluffing (in cases where there is a tendency to fold to a donk bet), and since passive players may not bet when they are the aggressor, they may also donk bet to defend against a strong hand, so it is difficult to generalize, but for now we will assume that donk bets will not be made.
With this assumption, the first decision maker on the flop can be considered the aggressor. As shown in Section 1, there are two cases: when he or she has a winning hand with the cards in his or her hand and the three community cards, and when they have no winning hand. The actions an aggressor can choose are betting and checking, but betting can also be divided into betting hard and betting moderately. These are divided into cases as follows:
| Hand Hit | Hand Not Hit | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Bet | Defense | Bluff |
| Bet | Value | Bluff |
| Check | Fake | Fold, Aim to Reversal |
The aggressor can be seen as the player who claimed to have the best hand preflop, so choosing to check will make other players think “oh, that guy missed.” When an aggressor checks, he is either retreating or trying to hide the fact that he has a strong hand (faking). For this reason, aggressors often choose to bet, and often continue to bet on the turn and river. A continuous bet made by an aggressor is called a Continuation Bet (CB).
The advantage of CB is that it makes it hard to distinguish between value bets and bluff bets. A value bet is a bet in which the bet amount depends on the strength of the cards in your hand, but even if your hand is poor, you can often get other players to fold by showing that you won. It seems to be statistically confirmed that beginners and advanced players alike tend to fold too much to CB. Therefore, if you are the aggressor, you should be conscious of increasing the probability of hitting the CB. However, hitting the CB too much can cause the following problems.
The probability of hitting a pair at the flop stage is roughly 40% (the probability of a high card is about 50%, and the 10% where you can only make a pair with community cards is excluded), so the ratio of bet:check and value + fake:bluff + retreat would be about 4:6. This ratio can be around 5:5, as flush draws and straight draws may also be considered as hitting and betted. However, when this ratio becomes unnatural it becomes obvious that the player is bluffing a lot. If you are too aggressive and don’t use fakes at all, but instead use bluffs more often, you will be betting unnaturally on the flop more often, which can lead to a bluff being attempted by a player with good instincts (your bluff being caught), so you need to be careful.
There is a case when you have a hitting hand, but you make a strong bet for the hand you have. This is often done when there is a high possibility that a flush or straight will be completed, in order to block players who are aiming for it from remaining. This is done to make people hesitate to draw the bets in an attempt to win the bet, and to show that flush and straight draws are not cheap. A flush draw has about a 35% chance of being made, so in order to make the bet even, you would need to block it by betting more than the current pot total (betting more than the current pot total is called an over-bet).
Players other than the aggressor can basically call or fold the bet offered by the aggressor, but can of course also return it with a raise. Depending on the actions players take and whether the bet is low, neutral, or high, the combinations will be as follows:
| Low Bet | Neutral Bet | High Bet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raise | Value | Defense | Bluff |
| Call | Fake | Value | Aim to Reversal |
| Fold | －－－ | －－－ | Fold |
Basically, the thinking is the same as that of the aggressor, but if you think the bet is too small you may raise. However, there may be cases where the aggressor is keeping the bet amount low in order to aim for a flush or straight, so it may be better to take the action of raising defensively. Of course, bluffs can also be initiated by players other than the aggressor. It seems that some tight aggressive players adopt the strategy of folding if they receive a raise in response to a bet, so if you come across a player who gives off that vibe, it might be worth considering the strategy of returning the raise with a bluff.
How to Deal with Loose-Passive Players
This article concludes with the previous section, but one thing that is frustrating while playing is that players with a beginner-like playing style (loose passive) can be quite difficult to deal with. Some books say that this type of play style is an easy target for beginners, but I find it surprisingly difficult to beat. The specific characteristics of the play style are as follows:
- Although players will narrow down the range of their cards pre-flop to some extent, they will enter the game with a wide range of cards. In particular, the participation rates of Suited (aiming for a flush) and Connected (aiming for a straight) are high even at lower ranks. He rarely raises preflop and tends to dislike raising the bet preflop, folding to 3-bet. It’s not uncommon for them to limp in. If they recognize that a player is going to 3-bet, they will be cautious and limp in until that player folds.
- They tend to be obsessed with making strong hands such as straights and flushes.
- If they see that they are not going to get the hand they are looking for on the flop, they will almost certainly fold. They will fold without hesitation even if the CB bets very small, such as 1bb.
- On the other hand, if they think they might have a strong hand, or even if they already have one, they will basically just check and call, and then suddenly try to raise the bet on the river (or in some cases, they won’t even do that and will just check on the river).
- They go all-in pre-flop when they get a pocket pair or a high-ranking off-suited hand (presumably because these hands require bluffing, unlike straights or flushes).
A textbook counter to this might be something like this:
- Before the flop, try to limit the hands you enter to strong ones. Before the flop, try to raise the bet amount. It may be a good idea to aim for the middle of the calling range and the 3-betting range (around 4-6bb) so that they are not thinking about folding.
- Basically, you should hit CB on the flop. However, try not to bluff bet. If you get a bad hand, you can still place a smaller bet. Players with this style of play fold when they are unable to make the hand they are aiming for, rather than when they bet too much, so bluffing may only result in larger losses when they lose. By raising the bet with a value bet, you can take a decent amount of chips away from your opponent if they don’t get a hand.
- Check whether you can make a straight or flush from the community cards and predict what hand they are aiming for.
- Generally, fold when your opponents bet hard, and don’t get fooled into thinking you can win with a high-ranking one or two pair. On the other hand, if you think you have a chance of winning, such as your opponent aiming for a straight and you have a flush, or your opponent aiming for a flush and has a full house, try to go all-in. This may be your only chance to take home a big chip.
- Generally, all-ins from pre-flop are ignored, but if you have a strong hand and want to join in, you can. It is never okay to get angry and join in with a weak hand.
Bluffing is almost never effective against this playstyle, and conversely, your opponent will rarely bluff either, so this playstyle may be optimized to nullify bluffing. Judging from the countermeasures being taken, I think that this is probably true, but I feel that it will require an enormous amount of patience. The situation where you have the only opportunity to take a big chunk of chips rarely comes up, the amount of chips you can take preflop or with a flop CB is tiny, and going all-in preflop is nothing more than a game of luck, so you end up playing a game of how many coins you can pick up in front of the bulldozer. In fact, it seems to be quite common that even after playing dozens of games, the amount of chips held by everyone remains almost unchanged.
I feel like I can’t bear to repeat this process that requires patience, so when I get a high-ranking pair, I raise my bet aggressively, only to get stung by a flush and lose out again and again. When you think about it this way, loose-passive players may not be beginners and easy losers, but rather players you don’t want to deal with because they are a waste of your patience and time (and a waste of chips if they are taking rake). This style of play tends to rely more on luck than skill, including counter measures. If they were truly weak, they wouldn’t go to the trouble of pointing out in a book that they should stop using that style of play. The reason why it is said that there are no players of this style among advanced players may be that they are not even taken seriously, rather than that they would lose if they used this style.
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